The resignation of the Government of Dmitry Medvedev did not make any surprise. According to a rather diplomatic assessment of the famous political analyst Anatoly Wasserman, “The economic theory used by the economic bloc of the government of the Russian Federation is fundamentally unfunctional” [1].
Incompetence, corruption, lack of strategic vision, absence of structural reforms, domination of state monopolies, imbalances in regional development, damaging of the federalism principles – these are, to name a few, problems Russian economy is faced with. In addition, ongoing, and in some components, toughening international sanctions led to economic recession, increased poverty, demographic crisis, environmental collapse, etc. Maybe the last straw on camel’s back was the latest study of the Accounting Chamber on environmental issues, which explicitly reveals impending collapse. “The environmental situation in Russia remains dysfunctional and continues to deteriorate: accumulated problems and climate change can lead to the 30% GDP decrease in the next 10 years,” claims the Accounts Chamber report on the “Ecology” National Project [2].
I have not too much time, so I’ll outline a few basic points only.
For many of us it is difficult to accept that Russia is moving towards fascism or even that the current Russian regime, or “Putinism”, is a fascist one; so called “fascism with a Russian face”. I’m sure that many Russians would strongly disagree with that; and not only Russians but also not a few Western scholars. There could be various reasons for that.
However, it is important to call things by their proper names, to call a spade a spade.
The main goal of my speech is to highlight one of the scientific forecast of the Russian regime dynamics. The word “scientific” is stressed as far as it is especially unacceptable to mix propaganda and agitation with scientific forecast. Whatever huge amount of propaganda is available, no scientific forecast can be based upon it.
There are two terms in the header of my speech that belong to the different semantic planes. Simulative democracy unlike the neo-totalitarianism is not the type of political regime. However, I put these two points in the header because the direction between the two most clearly characterizes a vector in which the current Putin's regime moves.
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Kobe Gakuin University |
Russian Federation as Conflictogenous Zone: What is Next?
(Kyiv, 17/24 May 2019, Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine)
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09.30 – 10.00 |
Registration |
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10.00 – 10.15 |
Welcoming speeches: - Ambassador Volodymyr Ohryzko, CEO, Centre for Russian Studies, Ukraine - Ambassador Sergiy Korsunskyi, Director, Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine |
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10.15 – 11.35 |
Panel І: North-Eastern "Frozen Conflicts" of Russia Moderator – Yuryi Kostenko, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Japan 2000 – 2006), to China (2009 - 2012), Deputy Minister, First Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs (2006 - 2009), Ukraine 1. "Frozen conflicts" in Russia-China relations: what has been forgotten in Russia, but what is remembered in China Viktor Gvosd, Chairman of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (2014-2016), president of the Independent Analytical Center For Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, Ukraine 2. The problem of the Northern Territories of Japan: what Russia possesses, what it wants, and what it can (cannot) Dr., Prof. Okabe Yoshihiko, Kobe Gakuin University, Japan, Foreign Expert of the Centre for Russian Studies 3. The problem of demarcation of the Arctic shelf: Russian approach’s threats to security Mykhailo Honchar, President,Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", Adviser to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (1996-2000), Expert, Centre for Russian Studies, Ukraine |
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11.35 – 12.00 |
Discussion |
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12.00 – 12.20 |
Coffee break |
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12.20 – 13.40 |
Panel ІІ: Internal conflicts in Russia: if they may break out (or when) Moderator – Leonid Osavoluk, Director, 1st Territorial Department (Russia) of the MFA of Ukraine (2008-2010), University of the State tax service of Ukraine, Expert, Centre for Russian Studies, Ukraine 1. Secessionism in the system of Russia’s internal inconsistencies Dr., Prof. Mikhail Savva, Chairman of Board Expert Group «Owl», Expert, Centre for Russian Studies, Ukraine/Russia<.span> 2. Separatism or national liberation movements? Analysis of interethnic conflicts in the Russian Federation from the viewpoint of international law Dr., Prof. Oleksandr Merezhko, Kyiv National Linguistic University, Ukraine 3. Collapse of the Russian Federation: "pluses" and "minuses" Dr., Prof. Grygory Perepelytsya, Institute of international relations at the Kiev National University, Expert, Centre for Russian Studies, Ukraine |
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13.40 – 14.05 |
Discussion |
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14.05 – 14.10 |
Summarizing |
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14.10 – 14.50 |
Reception |