The resignation of the Government of Dmitry Medvedev did not make any surprise. According to a rather diplomatic assessment of the famous political analyst Anatoly Wasserman, “The economic theory used by the economic bloc of the government of the Russian Federation is fundamentally unfunctional” [1].
Incompetence, corruption, lack of strategic vision, absence of structural reforms, domination of state monopolies, imbalances in regional development, damaging of the federalism principles – these are, to name a few, problems Russian economy is faced with. In addition, ongoing, and in some components, toughening international sanctions led to economic recession, increased poverty, demographic crisis, environmental collapse, etc. Maybe the last straw on camel’s back was the latest study of the Accounting Chamber on environmental issues, which explicitly reveals impending collapse. “The environmental situation in Russia remains dysfunctional and continues to deteriorate: accumulated problems and climate change can lead to the 30% GDP decrease in the next 10 years,” claims the Accounts Chamber report on the “Ecology” National Project [2].
For these and many other reasons, the resignation of the Government was not of any surprise; on contrary, the constitutional changes announced by Vladimir Putin contained certain element of surprise. What did the President of Russia suggest? The supremacy of constitutional norms over international law (this topic deserves separate analysis), the principles of a unified system of public authority, the new social standards enshrined in the Constitution, even such important ones as addressing the correlation of the minimum wage with the cost of living, do not belong to the subject of this article [3]. The point of our interest is related to the balance of power.
The only change in the political system is that the role of Parliament in the process of approval of the Government is being strengthened. But this proposal can hardly be called radical. The President reserves the right to nominate the Prime Minister, but after approval he cannot dismiss him. But it retains the right to dismiss members of the Government. Given today's realities in Russia, it is difficult to imagine that any Prime Minister will dare to confront Vladimir Putin. Mikhail Mishustin, having in mind his political weight and professional baggage, is definitely not an exception.
The question is, what was the motivation of President to initiate the complicated process of constitutional changes? The answer lies in Putin's attitude to the constitutional principle of limiting the election of the Head of State with two terms. He seems to agree that the President of the country cannot hold the post of head of state for more than two consecutive terms. But as Putin elegantly stated: “I do not consider this moment fundamental, but I agree with it” [4]. At the same time, the President emphasized that the population of Russia should express its attitude to the proposed changes in the course of a nationwide discussion and referendum. The logic is clear, as well as the roadmap. This very clear message is a guide to action for the party activists of the “United Russia”. Maybe this is where the main component of the tactical plan to solve the problem of 2024 is hiding.
For two decades, Russian society has been accustomed to the idea that Vladimir Putin is the guarantor of Russia's stability, who “soaked in the toilet” its enemies; he is the main pillar of its development, the warrior fighting imperialist predators aiming to conquer Russia, the “collector of Russian lands”, with Putin, Russia rose from its knees etc. During the national discussion we will observe sincere competition to please Putin; everybody will participate: party autocrats and government officials, creative intelligentsia and successful athletes, representatives of youth organizations, pensioner unions, etc. They will definitely remember how in the decisive years in the middle of the 20th century in the United States a widely supported special decision was approved allowing President Franklin Delano Roosevelt to take the President’s chair for the third consecutive time. There will be many other arguments provided, and this company will be framed according to all the rules of the well-crafted ideological and propaganda practice. Soloviyov and Kiselyov will play their roles, the troll factory will prove its credibility. As a result, the whole country and the constitutional majority of the State Duma will beg Vladimir Putin to agree to run for a third, and then, why not, for the next presidential term.
For some reason, it seems that the President of Russia will let himself be persuaded ...
References
https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2020/01/15/n_13918622.shtml
__________
*Information about the author:
Amb. Valeri Chechelashvili is a Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies since 2016. Mr. Valeri Chechelashvili has been a career diplomat since October 1989. He held various positions in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia from Second Secretary to Deputy Foreign Minister (1998 - 2000). He was Minister of Finance in 2005 and First Deputy Foreign Minister (2005 - 2007). He has served as an Ambassador to Ukraine (1994 - 1998), Ambassador to Russian Federation (2004 - 2005), Secretary General of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (2000 - 2004) and Secretary General of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM (2007 - 2016).