The article refers to the level and format issues of territorial integrity of Ukraine under Russian military aggression and annexation by Russia of the Ukrainian territory. Here we can imagine all the possible international formats, even those that are not used.
Level 1 - Budapest format (US, UK, Ukraine, Russia, in the presence of France and China)
Level 2 - Normandy format (Ukraine, France, Germany, Russia, represented by heads of state)
Level 3 - format of Minsk ( Ukraine , Russia, OSCE in the presence of the DNR, LNR)
Level 4 - Local format (Ukraine, DNR, LNR)
It is necessary to state the fact that Russia is not only violated a number of international agreements, which put into question the world order, but specially displayed new drivers of world order. Initially, Russia was able to withdraw from the global discourse concept of democracy, which is not even mentioned during the negotiations with the countries of the former USSR, in solving important issues in Eastern Europe. And introduced a new discourse of power, which has completely new meanings and importance "value of tension", "military aggression", "military power" in a certain region of "hybrid warfare" and so on. In this discourse has already mentioned only the Pentagon and Russian military forces. Even NATO in its power reactivity may be " weak link " and fall as a subject.
For Russia this way is very destructive in terms of the economy, the sanctions but as a result of their territorial claims it achieves all its objectives. Moreover, the Russian propaganda cements a lot of their meanings in the minds of people, that approves the actions of its leadership.
The situation in the conflict Russia-Ukraine revealed many weaknesses of the system of international security. From the inability of the UN to adequately respond to events in Ukraine and reaction of various countries in the event of annexation of territories in the twenty-first century.
Formats negotiations formed actually spontaneously, against the background of Ukrainian statements on aid on various international venues. It should be noted that the Minsk format (first and second) stopped active hostilities, as well as active promotion of Russian troops and military arms of the DNR, LNR and Russia. Stopped attacks on Ukrainian territory of the Russian Federation. But this format works very poorly, given the fact that from the terrorists are constantly shelling across the front line, Russia continues to fill the occupied territory of Ukraine by military equipment, and the OSCE is working very inefficiently.
In this context can be considered the possible formats of negotiations.
Level 1 - Budapest format. The most adequate in this situation, but for some reason all participants shamefully silent about it. I recall when Ukraine refused the third largest potential nuclear weapons in the world, which signed a memorandum in 1994, in Budapest, there was about guarantees territorial integrity of Ukraine by signatories - Heads of the US, Britain , Russia with the assistance of China and France. (original http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G94/652/94/PDF/G9465294.pdf?OpenElement)
This format opens the topic of global moral values and pragmatic problem of nuclear proliferation. Based on the Ukrainian case, it turns out that not only Russia does not comply with its obligations, but the US and Britain. If somewhere in the world one more country refuses nuclear weapons, no one will guarantee territorial integrity for it. And even if it gives, will not perform. After all, when a country decides on the establishment and management of nuclear weapons, it comes with its national interests and dangers, thus increasing the security of the state. Abandoning this type of total weapons - significantly weakens itself, trusting partners that provide guarantees.
I think Ukraine should again declare the desire to resolve the issue of its territorial integrity with the countries - guarantors, relying on which significantly weakened itself. So there is only global and radical solution to the question.
Level 2 - Normandy format. This format began with France and it was attended by Heads of State and Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia. It became possible as a tool to discuss the East Ukraine and the pressure on Russia, but still, as a result, it is not clear why these countries have decided to address the conflict. Most likely as the strongest European countries, which know the behavior of Russia and Vladimir Putin personally. By the way, this format didn`t raise the question of annexation of Crimea by Russia.
Sometimes this format is converted from four to three, with the reluctance of Russia and Vladimir Putin to appear in a very uncomfortable situation for him. In fact, Russia is the opponent in this format for three other participants.
It is necessary to make the most of this format, raising Ukraine's intention to speak at a high level.
Level 3 - Minsk format. The format, which stopped the war. Which found the option of fragile truce in this conflict. This format is now broken, but still maintains the "status quo" and allows to dialogue between the parties.
But the representation of the parties "Minsk format" is clearly losing the previous two. There is no Presidents and Prime Ministers, and tripartite contact group from Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE. In the presence of representatives of unrecognized republics , and the Ukrainian legislation five minutes terrorist organizations DNR and LNR. In this case, if Ukraine recognizes them as terrorist, there will be no negotiations and discussions, but if it doesn`t, the fact of negotiations legalizes these entities in the Donetsk and Lugansk region.
Prospects in this format is " best of the worst ", and at possible escalation of the conflict it can be the format of "Minsk- 3. It should be noted that based on this format European countries and the United States press on Ukraine to be more pliable , thus attempting to restrain the conflict on the border of Russia- Ukraine without arousing the desire of " grabing " something from the Baltic States or Europe.
It is necessary to raise the level of negotiations to Normandy, and ideally to Budapest.
Level 4 - Local format. Negotiations in Ukraine, where the leadership of Ukraine sits at the table of negotiations with the leadership of the DNR/LNR. Most comfortable format for Russia and most dangerous for Ukraine. Demonstrationo of key message of Russian propaganda about the civil war in Ukraine for domestic consumption and "Ukrainian crisis" and "Ukrainian conflict" - for international. Especially it will be humiliating in the presence of representatives of Russia, as guarantors of agreements. This is a special status of Donbass and holding elections in the open border situation with Russia and chaos in the management inside, with its own laws, ministries, presidents, etc.
So, what to do in this situation? It is necessary to consolidate the possible formats (Normandy and Minsk) and actively start a discussion about Budapest format, as a possible solution to the situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Raise questions about the possibility of nuclear proliferation and guarantees in the situation of joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukrainian case of failure of such guarantees should actively be discussed at international venues. Appeal to moral values and guarantees in the world on existing, and possible in future, international organizations.